Blood Bowl Probabilities

All beginners are regularly being told to play their turn starting from the safest actions to the most risky ones. Blood Bowl can be approached by playing only the probabilities and an experienced coach can become relatively good by restricting himself to the safest actions. But in reality, there are usually many more important tactical and strategic considerations than this logical sequence. However, for the purposes of this exercise, here is a table summarizing the failure percentages of a majority of actions.

FAILURE PERCENTAGESIMPLIFIED FRACTION
Infallible: you will not fail …
3 dice with Block and a Reroll0,002 %1/50 000
As safe as possible: rarely failed, but we remember it for a long time when it happens!
2 dice with Block and a Reroll0,08 %1/1300
3 dice without Block, and a Reroll0,1 %1/1000
3 dice with Block0,5 %1/200
Solid: but still regularly failed during a game.
2 dice without Block, with Reroll1 %1/100
2 + with Reroll ••• 2 dice with Block3 %1/33
3 dice without Block4 %1/25
2+ / 2+ with Pass and Catch5 %1/20
2+ / 2+ with Reroll7 %1/13
Reasonable: cautiously expect a failure but keep the bulk of your players to consolidate a success.
2 dice against with Block and a Reroll10 %1/10
3+ with a Reroll ••• 2 dice without Block11 %1/9
2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll13 %1/7
2+ ••• 1 die with Block17 %1/6
2+ / 2+ with Pass19 %1/5
2+ / 2+ with Pass, Catch and 6+ interception21 %1/5
Hazardous: seriously expect a failure but keep a mobile reserve to consolidate a success.
4+ with Reroll25 %1/4
2 dice against with Block ••• 2+ / 2+31 %1/3
2+ / 2+ with Pass and 6+ interception32 %1/3
3+ ••• 1 die without Block33 %1/3
2+ / 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll35 %1/3
Shitty: look for a better way to do it though it could be your only avenue if you’re in a really tight spot!
2+ / 2+ / 2+42 %2/5
5+ with Reroll44 %1/2
4+50 %1/2
2 dice against without Block56 %1/2
Do not attempt: brave or unconscious, these are absolute last resort actions.
5+67 %2/3
6+ with Reroll69 %2/3
6+83 %5/6
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