Blood Bowl Art - Probabilities

Blood Bowl Odds

All rookies are regularly told to play their turn starting from the safest actions to the riskiest ones. Blood Bowl can be approached by playing only the probabilities and an experienced coach can become relatively good by restricting himself to the safest actions. But in reality, there are usually many more important tactical and strategic considerations than this logical sequence. However, for the purposes of this exercise, here is a table summarizing the failure percentages of a majority of actions.

You will not fail …
3 dice with Block and a Reroll1/50 0000,002 %
We remember it for a long time when it fails
2 dice with Block and a Reroll1/13000,08 %
3 dice without Block, and a Reroll1/10000,1 %
3 dice with Block1/2000,5 %
Still, these actions are regularly failed
2 dice without Block, with Reroll1/801,3 %
3 dice with Brawler1/602 %
2 + with Reroll ••• 2 dice with Block1/333 %
3 dice without Block1/254 %
2+ / 2+ with Pass and Catch1/205 %
2 dice with Brawler1/186 %
2+ / 2+ with Reroll1/137 %
Cautiously expect a failure but keep an adequate reserve to consolidate a success
2 dice against with Block and a Reroll1/1010 %
3+ with a Reroll ••• 2 dice without Block1/911 %
2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll1/713 %
2+ ••• 1 die with Block1/617 %
2+ / 2+ with Pass1/519 %
2+ / 2+ with Pass, Catch and 6+ interference •••  1 die with Brawler1/521 %
6+ Foul with Sneaky Git1/522 %
Expect a failure but keep a minimal reserve to consolidate a success
4+ with Reroll1/425 %
6+ Foul1/429 %
2 dice against with Block ••• 2+ / 2+1/331 %
2+ / 2+ with Pass and 6+ interception1/332 %
3+ ••• 1 die without Block1/333 %
2+ / 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll1/335 %
Look for a better way to do it though it could be your only avenue if you’re in a tight spot
2+ / 2+ / 2+2/542 %
5+ with Reroll1/244 %
4+1/250 %
2 dice against without Block1/256 %
Brave or unconscious, there are last resort actions
5+2/367 %
6+ with Reroll2/369 %
6+5/683 %

Further reading

• Blood Bowl Fouling Odds
Blood Bowl Armors & Injuries Odds
Blood Bowl Teams Strength

5 thoughts on “Blood Bowl Odds”

  1. blank
    Ma'tta'burra LzrdCch

    Hey, I’d really appreciate it if you guys could add permuations of ‘x dice block with Brawler’, since that’s become a thing. It’d help nail down the difference in safety between Brawler and Block, and help make the decision of when it’s worth taking Brawler if you’ve got Strength Primary and General Secondary, such as in many Big Guys. Thanks!

  2. It’s a little confusing that you represent the odds in the other way around: first the percentage and than translate it into a fraction.

    Because this way you introduce rounding errors. Like the 2 dice block without Block with a RR is a 1/81 and 1,23% chance of failure, not 1/100, which is a significant difference.

    I would like to also see the 2d6 rolls in this list: for fouling, ClawMB and stuff like that. But i get that this list focuses on the chance to cause a turn-over.

    1. blank
      Taureau Amiral

      Hi El_Jairo!

      You’re right about the rounding aberration! I’ve corrected it to 1/80 which is far closer to the truth.

      I’ve included the turnover chances of 6+ fouls in the graph, though actuaries would undoubtedly look disapprovingly at the resulting fractions … with good reasons!

      As you suggested, I’ve also inverted the simplified fraction column with the failure percentage column as one logically follows the other.

      Thanks for your help on this one!

  3. What about Pro, and Pro+Block? the conditional reroll math makes it hard for me to intuitively understand the chance of falling over and a turnover with Pro.

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