Blood Bowl Odds & Probabilities

All rookies are regularly told to play their turn starting from the safest actions to the riskiest ones. Blood Bowl can be approached by playing only the probabilities and an experienced coach can become relatively good by restricting himself to the safest actions. But in reality, there are usually many more important tactical and strategic considerations than this logical sequence. However, for the purposes of this exercise, here is a table summarizing the failure percentages of a majority of actions.

FAILURE PERCENTAGE SIMPLIFIED FRACTION
Infallible: you will not fail …
3 dice with Block and a Reroll 0,002 % 1/50 000
As safe as possible: rarely failed, but we remember it for a long time when it happens!
2 dice with Block and a Reroll 0,08 % 1/1300
3 dice without Block, and a Reroll 0,1 % 1/1000
3 dice with Block 0,5 % 1/200
Solid: but still regularly failed during a game.
2 dice without Block, with Reroll 1 % 1/100
2 + with Reroll ••• 2 dice with Block 3 % 1/33
3 dice without Block 4 % 1/25
2+ / 2+ with Pass and Catch 5 % 1/20
2+ / 2+ with Reroll 7 % 1/13
Reasonable: cautiously expect a failure but keep the bulk of your players to consolidate a success.
2 dice against with Block and a Reroll 10 % 1/10
3+ with a Reroll ••• 2 dice without Block 11 % 1/9
2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll 13 % 1/7
2+ ••• 1 die with Block 17 % 1/6
2+ / 2+ with Pass 19 % 1/5
2+ / 2+ with Pass, Catch and 6+ interception 21 % 1/5
Hazardous: seriously expect a failure but keep a mobile reserve to consolidate a success.
4+ with Reroll 25 % 1/4
2 dice against with Block ••• 2+ / 2+ 31 % 1/3
2+ / 2+ with Pass and 6+ interception 32 % 1/3
3+ ••• 1 die without Block 33 % 1/3
2+ / 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll 35 % 1/3
Shitty: look for a better way to do it though it could be your only avenue if you’re in a really tight spot!
2+ / 2+ / 2+ 42 % 2/5
5+ with Reroll 44 % 1/2
4+ 50 % 1/2
2 dice against without Block 56 % 1/2
Do not attempt: brave or unconscious, these are absolute last resort actions.
5+ 67 % 2/3
6+ with Reroll 69 % 2/3
6+ 83 % 5/6
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