Blood Bowl Odds & Probabilities

By Taureau Amiral

All rookies are regularly told to play their turn starting from the safest actions to the riskiest ones. Blood Bowl can be approached by playing only the probabilities and an experienced coach can become relatively good by restricting himself to the safest actions. But in reality, there are usually many more important tactical and strategic considerations than this logical sequence. However, for the purposes of this exercise, here is a table summarizing the failure percentages of a majority of actions.

	FAILURE PERCENTAGE	SIMPLIFIED FRACTION
Infallible: you will not fail …
3 dice with Block and a Reroll	0,002 %	1/50 000
As safe as possible: rarely failed, but we remember it for a long time when it happens!
2 dice with Block and a Reroll	0,08 %	1/1300
3 dice without Block, and a Reroll	0,1 %	1/1000
3 dice with Block	0,5 %	1/200
Solid: but still regularly failed during a game.
2 dice without Block, with Reroll	1 %	1/100
2 + with Reroll ••• 2 dice with Block	3 %	1/33
3 dice without Block	4 %	1/25
2+ / 2+ with Pass and Catch	5 %	1/20
2+ / 2+ with Reroll	7 %	1/13
Reasonable: cautiously expect a failure but keep the bulk of your players to consolidate a success.
2 dice against with Block and a Reroll	10 %	1/10
3+ with a Reroll ••• 2 dice without Block	11 %	1/9
2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll	13 %	1/7
2+ ••• 1 die with Block	17 %	1/6
2+ / 2+ with Pass	19 %	1/5
2+ / 2+ with Pass, Catch and 6+ interception	21 %	1/5
Hazardous: seriously expect a failure but keep a mobile reserve to consolidate a success.
4+ with Reroll	25 %	1/4
2 dice against with Block ••• 2+ / 2+	31 %	1/3
2+ / 2+ with Pass and 6+ interception	32 %	1/3
3+ ••• 1 die without Block	33 %	1/3
2+ / 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll	35 %	1/3
Shitty: look for a better way to do it though it could be your only avenue if you’re in a really tight spot!
2+ / 2+ / 2+	42 %	2/5
5+ with Reroll	44 %	1/2
4+	50 %	1/2
2 dice against without Block	56 %	1/2
Do not attempt: brave or unconscious, these are absolute last resort actions.
5+	67 %	2/3
6+ with Reroll	69 %	2/3
6+	83 %	5/6