All rookies are regularly told to play their turn starting from the safest actions to the riskiest ones. Blood Bowl can be approached by playing only the probabilities and an experienced coach can become relatively good by restricting himself to the safest actions. But in reality, there are usually many more important tactical and strategic considerations than this logical sequence. However, for the purposes of this exercise, here is a table summarizing the failure percentages of a majority of actions.
| SIMPLIFIED FRACTION | FAILURE PERCENTAGE | |
| INFAILLIBLE You will not fail … | ||
| 3 dice with Block and a Reroll | 1/50 000 | 0,002 % |
| AS SAFE AS POSSIBLE We remember it for a long time when it fails | ||
| 2 dice with Block and a Reroll | 1/1300 | 0,08 % |
| 3 dice without Block, and a Reroll | 1/1000 | 0,1 % |
| 3 dice with Block | 1/200 | 0,5 % |
| SOLID Still, these actions are regularly failed | ||
| 2 dice without Block, with Reroll | 1/80 | 1,3 % |
| 3 dice with Brawler | 1/60 | 2 % |
| 2 + with Reroll ••• 2 dice with Block | 1/33 | 3 % |
| 3 dice without Block | 1/25 | 4 % |
| 2+ / 2+ with Pass and Catch | 1/20 | 5 % |
| 2 dice with Brawler | 1/18 | 6 % |
| 2+ / 2+ with Reroll | 1/13 | 7 % |
| REASONABLE Cautiously expect a failure but keep an adequate reserve to consolidate a success | ||
| 2 dice against with Block and a Reroll | 1/10 | 10 % |
| 3+ with a Reroll ••• 2 dice without Block | 1/9 | 11 % |
| 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll | 1/7 | 13 % |
| 2+ ••• 1 die with Block | 1/6 | 17 % |
| 2+ / 2+ with Pass | 1/5 | 19 % |
| 2+ / 2+ with Pass, Catch and 6+ interference ••• 1 die with Brawler | 1/5 | 21 % |
| 6+ Foul with Sneaky Git | 1/5 | 22 % |
| HAZARDOUS Expect a failure but keep a minimal reserve to consolidate a success | ||
| 4+ with Reroll | 1/4 | 25 % |
| 6+ Foul | 1/4 | 29 % |
| 2 dice against with Block ••• 2+ / 2+ | 1/3 | 31 % |
| 2+ / 2+ with Pass and 6+ interception | 1/3 | 32 % |
| 3+ ••• 1 die without Block | 1/3 | 33 % |
| 2+ / 2+ / 2+ / 2+ with Reroll | 1/3 | 35 % |
| SH*TTY Look for a better way to do it though it could be your only avenue if you’re in a tight spot | ||
| 2+ / 2+ / 2+ | 2/5 | 42 % |
| 5+ with Reroll | 1/2 | 44 % |
| 4+ | 1/2 | 50 % |
| 2 dice against without Block | 1/2 | 56 % |
| DON’T Brave or unconscious, there are last resort actions | ||
| 5+ | 2/3 | 67 % |
| 6+ with Reroll | 2/3 | 69 % |
| 6+ | 5/6 | 83 % |
Further reading
• Blood Bowl Fouling Odds
• Blood Bowl Armors & Injuries Odds
• Blood Bowl Teams Strength
Hey, I’d really appreciate it if you guys could add permuations of ‘x dice block with Brawler’, since that’s become a thing. It’d help nail down the difference in safety between Brawler and Block, and help make the decision of when it’s worth taking Brawler if you’ve got Strength Primary and General Secondary, such as in many Big Guys. Thanks!
Hi Ma’tta’burra ! The graph now has Brawler stats ! Cheers !
It’s a little confusing that you represent the odds in the other way around: first the percentage and than translate it into a fraction.
Because this way you introduce rounding errors. Like the 2 dice block without Block with a RR is a 1/81 and 1,23% chance of failure, not 1/100, which is a significant difference.
I would like to also see the 2d6 rolls in this list: for fouling, ClawMB and stuff like that. But i get that this list focuses on the chance to cause a turn-over.
Hi El_Jairo!
You’re right about the rounding aberration! I’ve corrected it to 1/80 which is far closer to the truth.
I’ve included the turnover chances of 6+ fouls in the graph, though actuaries would undoubtedly look disapprovingly at the resulting fractions … with good reasons!
As you suggested, I’ve also inverted the simplified fraction column with the failure percentage column as one logically follows the other.
Thanks for your help on this one!
What about Pro, and Pro+Block? the conditional reroll math makes it hard for me to intuitively understand the chance of falling over and a turnover with Pro.
Isn’t the chance of failing a 3+ with a re-roll 25%, not 11%?
When looking at all possible outcome sequences:
– There are 4 immediate successes (rolling 3, 4, 5, or 6 on first roll)
– There are 2 first rolls that lead to re-rolls (rolling 1 or 2)
– Each of these 2 outcomes branches into 6 possible second rolls
– So there are 2 × 6 = 12 possible two-roll sequences
This gives us 4 + 12 = 16 total possible outcome sequences.
Of these 16 sequences, the failures are:
– Roll 1, then re-roll 1
– Roll 1, then re-roll 2
– Roll 2, then re-roll 1
– Roll 2, then re-roll 2
That’s 4 failure outcomes out of 16 total outcomes.
Therefore, the probability of failure is:
4/16 = 1/4 = 25%
Hello Gareth,
Thank you for your input!
I’m not a maths expert… just a Minotaur. I’ll try to explain it roughly, using my basic knowledge.
You attempt a 3+ Dodge.
You have a 1 in 3 chance of requiring a reroll.
If you reroll, you have a 1 in 3 chance of failing.
(1 in 3) of (1 in 3) = (1 in 9)
Or, in percentages (33% x 33% = 11%). I’m pretty sure that 11% isn’t the exact figure, but rounding the number helps to remember it and makes it easier to compare this probability with others in various game situations.
Though, I agree that in-game, it probably feels more like 25% chance of failing for yourself, and 3% for your opponent.
I hope I’ve helped!
Taureau